A Year Of Waiting
Kirjoitettu 17.1.2010, kategoria Polttoaineet, Sekalaista, Sähkö, Uutiset.
As I survey the clean energy landscape at the beginning of the new year I think about the prospects for technological milestones and breakthroughs in 2010. We’re coming out of a year where billions of dollars have been either granted or loaned to companies in the name of the next generation of clean energy. You name it and it was probably funded, or at least approved for funding, in 2009. Wind projects, biofuels, battery technology, fuel efficient motor vehicles, energy efficiency, enhanced geothermal, grid-scale energy storage and smart grid are some of the key technology initiatives that were funded. So there’s a lot of hope that we’ll start to see the fruits of this funding in 2010. Don’t count on it though.
When I think about 2010 it seems to me that this will be a year of waiting in the clean energy space. That’s not to say that major projects such as wind and solar farms won’t be completed in 2010. Many projects will be completed but it won’t be the tipping point year for many of the newer and most promising technologies. The reasons for that would make sense to most anyone who knows a little bit about the clean energy space. Take the funding for example. Once the press releases are a day old the hard work on many of these projects begins. After all, you don’t get a check from the Department of Energy one day and start building batteries the next day. Matching funds to meet the government requirements need to be finalized. Planning needs to take place. People need to be hired. Contracts need to be negotiated and signed. Those are just a few things that typically take place before a project begins in earnest. It’s a lot of work and it takes time. The bigger the project, the longer the lead time. And there’s also the matter of projects or technologies that are underway but will not meet expectations.
What follows is a summary of some key clean energy technologies and how they are likely to fare in the current year.
Electric Vehicles - Both Nissan (the Leaf) and GM (the Chevy Volt) have promised to introduce their version of the electric automobile in 2010. The cars will be made available late in the year and in limited markets, primarily California. While there will be a lot of noise leading up to their respective launches most consumers won’t have access to buy one of these vehicles if they wanted to. Those that do live in the right markets probably won’t be able to afford the $30,000 – $40,000 price tag after Federal tax incentives. By the end of 2010 electric vehicles will still mostly be a curiosity. The ones that are on the road will definitely turn heads though.Wind Power - Most onshore development will take place in the Upper Midwest. Northeast onshore development will be slowed by issues related to cost and location related opposition. Simply put, there are a lot more open spaces in the Upper Midwest. Land is cheaper there and developers are less likely to run into opposition due to “pollution” of the skyline. Offshore development off of the Northeast coast and in the Great Lakes will continue to be planned, discussed and debated. Cape Wind in Massachusetts will probably get the green light to move ahead by the Secretary of the Interior but either way construction will not start before the end of the year.
Biofuels - Ethanol is on the shelf as a source of fuel for motor vehicles. Notice that you’re not hearing anything about flex fuel vehicles anymore. The chart below shows the trends for web searches on the term “flex fuel vehicle”. Batteries are the next great hope. You’ll be hearing a lot more about “advanced biofuels” such as cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel.
Enhanced Geothermal - We’re still a long way off from a major breakthrough in harvesting energy from the heat within the earth. Conventional geothermal energy is a available in a small portion of the country. Enhanced geothermal promises to bring the technology to many other areas of the country. Unfortunately recent endeavors to prove the technology have not ended well. AltaRock Energy (funded in part by the DOE and Google) shut down their California project in 2009 due to drilling problems. They’ll take another crack (no pun intended) at it in 2010 with a demonstration project in Oregon.
Smart Grid - By the end of the year more electric customers than ever will have advanced meters installed in their homes. That number will still represent a very small portion of total electric consumers as most of the meters will be located in areas of Texas, California and Colorado. Many more smart meter projects are in the works due to 2009 funding commitments from the America Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) but those projects require a certain amount of lead time before meters start getting installed. Electric utilities are also dealing with issues related to financing in an environment when demand is reduced due to the recession and customers are wary of any innovations that might increase their electric bill. PG&E’s problems with their smart meter customers in Northern California are a notable development that will probably influence other utilities to choose their roll out timelines carefully, perhaps alotting more time for customer outreach before installing new meters over a wide area.
There is going to be a lot of activity in 2010. There’s no doubt about that. I don’t think we’ll see a lot of results though. At least not as much as many would hope for. Progress will be made but it won’t be obvious to the average consumer. In the years that follow 2010 we’ll start to see more of the fruits of the hard work and investment taking place today
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Lähde: Clean Energy Digest
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